This quote from Ray Dalio isn’t strictly about financial investing. It was originally about building and growing companies. But in reality, it’s a reminder you can apply to almost everything.
In markets, think about green candles and red candles. Candles are merely outputs, formed by a chain of behaviors, emotions, incentives, and environmental factors driving people to buy, sell, and trade assets.
If you only look at candles or technical indicators without understanding what created them, all you’ll see are red and green colors and lifeless lines on a chart.
Behavior, psychology, incentives, and context are the real substance. That’s why it’s worth digging deep into what Ray Dalio calls “the force behind the thing.”
#MARKET | TL;DR
CRYPTO: The crypto market remains stuck in a price range that has lasted 7–10 consecutive weeks. There is still no compelling new narrative strong enough to lift capital sentiment amid the storm.
STOCK: While crypto remains largely stagnant, the S&P 500 has rebounded and printed a new ATH at 6,930. AI continues to lead the rally, but not every AI Stock benefits equally. Capital is concentrating on companies with real AI revenue and real AI CapEx, not vague narratives.
MACRO: U.S. Q3 GDP came in at +4.3%, signaling a healthy economy. However, markets remain unconvinced due to concerns around delayed data (government shutdown effects), AI acting as a macro support pillar that may distort reality, and broader questions around growth quality. Overall, markets remain extremely cautious.
GOLD & SILVER: Amid persistent uncertainty, gold and silver continue to surge, printing new all-time highs.
#SPOTLIGHT
Hyperliquid and the Perp DEX Landscape
Following earlier FUD around user auto-deleveraging mechanisms, Hyperliquid has recently faced new accusations: insufficient collateral, centralized control, and potential manipulation of volume, oracle data, and airdrops. These are serious allegations that strike directly at the transparency and safety of a large-scale Perp DEX.
The team responded point by point using on-chain data, explaining that the alleged $362M shortfall resulted from the accuser overlooking native USDC on HyperEVM. They clarified that the functions accused of manipulation exist only on testnet, and that all fees, balances, liquidations, oracle updates, and token distributions are publicly verifiable on-chain.
Several accusations, they argue, stem from misunderstandings of the technical design.
After a strong FOMO-driven rally, Hyperliquid still holds a leading position among Perp DEX. However, the combination of rising FUD and increasing competition has undeniably pushed Hyperliquid into a much more intense competitive environment.
Hyperliquid is now entering a high-pressure phase. If you want a clearer picture of what may come next, I’ve already written a dedicated piece on it.
The Bigger Picture: Where Perp DEX Competition Is Headed
From a pure speed and performance perspective, most Perp DEX are converging.
2026 may be even more competitive, especially with new entrants on Solana.
Just like blockchain infrastructure races in the past, once raw speed converges, competition must move up a level. The next battlefield is no longer execution speed.
Which leads to the real question many people are now asking: “What can collateral on Perp platforms do beyond sitting idle as margin?”
Every Perp platform holds enormous collateral pools, but most of that capital is dead capital. Funds sit idle in margin accounts, generating fees for the exchange but doing nothing for users.
Solving this problem, making collateral more productive while it’s locked as margin, is emerging as a new competitive edge for Perp DEX.
#ALPHA
CUT THROUGH THE NOISE
Kinetiq is a leading liquid staking project within Hyperliquid’s HyperEVM ecosystem.
The project already has a token, $KNTQ, and recently introduced a mechanism allowing holder to “invest” using $HYPE to expand into Equity Perp via its Markets product.
This is one of the top teams in the ecosystem and worth paying attention to.
I previously mentioned Kinetiq in my Hyperliquid opportunity analysis. You can revisit that piece for more detail.
Their latest update aims to return value directly to long-term holder, rather than dispersing it.
Specifically, all revenue from commissions, launches, LST, and Markets will be used to buy back $KNTQ and distribute it to $sKNTQ holder (locked $KNTQ), instead of burning tokens.
Following this update, $KNTQ surged ~50%.
It’s no exaggeration to say Base has been one of Ethereum’s most successful Layer 2s.
While many competitors stagnated, Base generated 62% of total L2 revenue in 2025.
Key drivers include:
Distribution power
Coinbase’s network effect
The absence of a token
As I’ve said before, while other L2s struggle to define their edge, Content Creator Coin, or more broadly Base App, represents Base’s core bet in the current crypto race.
Base is building an “everything app” where users can both socialize and deploy capital within a single interface.
Everything around Base, especially Base App and creator coin, is still extremely early.
Product–market fit remains uncertain, but because this direction is central to Base’s strategy, it’s not something that should be dismissed prematurely.
I recently listened to a Pantera podcast that highlighted a major structural shift in the crypto market: Deal count is down ~50%, but deals are much larger.
Key takeaways:
Crypto venture capital is entering a capital concentration phase
Total capital raised hit new highs, but deal count fell sharply versus 2021–2022
The market is moving away from “fund everything with a narrative” toward fewer, larger, higher-conviction deals
Three main reasons:
Capital has shifted toward later-stage rounds (Series B+), where revenue, users, and exit paths are clearer
There has been no broad Altcoin rally, which previously fueled seed and pre-seed activity
Exit paths via IPO and M&A are reopening, especially after Circle’s IPO, giving VCs alternatives beyond TGE
The result: crypto venture increasingly resembles traditional venture → fewer deals, deeper diligence, higher ownership, clearer business models (stablecoin, payments, tokenization, infra)
This is a clear signal that the market is leaving its speculative peak and entering a more mature phase.
CARDS, the token of Collector Crypt, surged over 75% in a single day after months of inactivity.
Collector Crypt operates a gacha-style NFT product where packs contain collectible cards (Pokémon, sports cards, etc.).
What sets Collector Crypt apart is that it operates as a profitable business, not just an NFT speculation play.
Key metrics:
$13–16M weekly gacha volume.
~$19–28M annualized free cash flow.
95% of opened cards are sold back to the platform within 24 hours.
Gacha is the core engine and acts as a powerful moat due to rapid capital rotation.
#AROUND_THE_MARKET
THIS WEEK’S HEADLINES
#WHAT_TO_READ
WORTH READIND THIS WEEK
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