Instead of opening with a quote as usual, this week I want to share something else with you: four pages from an old notebook that I recently rediscovered while reorganizing my bookshelf. They tell the story of my “Big Short LUNA.”

LUNA and UST were the two tokens of the once-famous Terra project. LUNA was the token of the ecosystem, while UST was an algorithmic stablecoin backed by LUNA itself rather than being fiat-backed 1:1 with USD like most traditional stablecoins.

With a fixed yield of 20%, the model had long been flagged as unsustainable. Yet at that time, only a handful of people in the crypto market believed that LUNA could actually collapse.

After analyzing the model and its surrounding factors, I became convinced that LUNA was highly likely to fail. I even wrote an article titled “Waiting for a Big Short on LUNA” on MarginATM. And then?

Everything happened exactly as expected, except for one thing: my Big Short never did.

Why?

Because when LUNA actually started to fall, I lost my conviction. I stopped trusting my own analysis. I was influenced by narratives like “Terra has massive backing,” or “So many powerful players are behind it, how could it possibly collapse?”

The result: LUNA and UST collapsed, Do Kwon went to jail, many large players lost billions of dollars, while my Big Short existed only on paper. I ended up making just a few hundred dollars as consolation from a late short position.

It all came down to two simple words: conviction.

That became a major lesson for me. Having the courage to believe in your own thinking, and to think differently from what others believe, is one of the most profound lessons I’ve personally learned.

Of course, conviction must be rational. It has to be grounded in logic and thorough analysis, not blind belief or something you accept just because someone else said it and it sounds reasonable. That kind of belief is fragile, easily shaken, and often leads to poor decisions.

Much like how the market has moved over the past week, our job is to remain steady and committed to what we’ve already analyzed, at least until a sufficiently large variable appears that changes the entire market structure. Only then should conviction be reassessed.

So, what stood out this week?

“Rates have been cut, now what?” This is the question I raised during the most recent Ivy offline session.

I used a simple analogy: think of the market like a manual transmission car. When you’re in first gear, you press the gas and the car accelerates, but only up to a certain speed. To go faster, you have to shift into the next gear. If you don’t, the engine just revs louder without going anywhere faster.

That’s very similar to how the market is behaving right now.

The Fed cut rates last week, but since then the market hasn’t moved higher and instead has begun to correct. This is because other unresolved concerns remain.

When will everything become clear? I don’t know.

What matters to me is that the U.S. economy is still showing strength. Businesses are still operating, and consumers still have money to spend. There is no clear evidence or narrative pointing directly to an inevitable recession. The market is simply worrying too far ahead and focusing excessively on interest rates.

This reinforces my view that the market is not at the top yet.

Don’t wait for absolute clarity. When things become obvious, the market never gives you time to act.

Next week could remain volatile, as new information directly tied to current market concerns is set to emerge.

For those interested in diving deeper into macro analysis, I found a particularly insightful article on the U.S. labor market. Beyond understanding the labor market itself, the article demonstrates how to properly evaluate an indicator by digging into its underlying components, helping you grasp the true nature of the situation rather than just the surface-level data.

This is the same approach I apply when evaluating any piece of information: understanding the entire iceberg, including what lies beneath the surface.

“Perp DEX Trend” is not a typo. I want to emphasize my personal view that perpetual trading on DEX is not a short-lived trend. It is a core component that will continue to exist alongside the broader development of the DeFi market because it fulfills a fundamental need.

Thanks to CZ and the momentum created through Aster, market attention toward this sector has accelerated.

Upside has compiled a list of Perp DEX projects for easier review and research. You can find it here.

Sharing a few additional thoughts based on the recent Aster phenomenon:

After its airdrop, Hyperliquid still holds more than $7 billion (valued at $HYPE on April 23) allocated for community rewards, accounting for 38% of the total supply.

Users come to trade on Hyperliquid partly because of the product and its solid model, but also because it offers potential future upside, an implicit incentive beyond just trading itself. So why not choose Hyperliquid?

When Aster appeared, it became clear that most users were still chasing that hidden upside, rather than simply using a good product and stopping there. Aster, too, has a large “reward pool” dangling in front of users via its tokenomics.

This leads me to believe that the Perp DEX space will become far more interesting in the coming period. Nothing has fully settled yet. No single protocol has truly established dominance in DeFi, while the broader market lacks new narratives to divert attention elsewhere.

TVL across ecosystems declined sharply, reflecting the broader market downturn where most assets moved lower. No ecosystem stood out significantly, with the exception of Plasma.

Plasma is a blockchain focused on stablecoin development. However, it’s not limited to simple transfers like Bitcoin and maintains its own ecosystem.

Since its token was recently launched, speculative activity is currently high. Note that speculation carries significant risk and should be approached with caution. Upside has published a guide for those looking to explore the Plasma ecosystem. You can read more here.

On-chain capital activity remains relatively quiet. There hasn’t been much change, and no ecosystem has sparked a breakthrough narrative. The market continues to revolve around two primary trends: Perp DEX and Prediction Market.

Don’t misunderstand me. I’m not shilling $SOL. My goal with IVY Newsletter is to lay out all the information, logic, and perspectives on the table so you can save time and make your own decisions.

I chose this video as this week’s Good Read because it offers a valuable look into how a major market player evaluates the broader market and a specific project, and what factors they consider before making decisions.

The podcast runs for over an hour, perfect to enjoy with a weekend cup of coffee.

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