I like this quote because it points directly at a common mistake many investors make: constantly trying to predict the future, craving the feeling of beating the market, and chasing that “See? I knew it!” moment.
In reality, everything is just a game of probabilities.
Instead of trying to guess what tomorrow will look like, what matters more is preparation. Preparing mentally for volatility, preparing risk management strategies, and preparing for worst-case scenarios so you’re not caught off guard.
To prepare properly, you need to focus on fundamentals and observable phenomena to determine where we likely stand in the market cycle and which scenarios carry the highest probabilities.
This is something I’ve emphasized since the very first IVY articles. Rather than obsessing over every market move or every word from Chair Powell, the most important task is to determine where the market stands: Upslope, Peak, or Bottom?
I believe those who have followed IVY Newsletter from the beginning already had a clear sense of where we were in the cycle well before the recent rallies.
So now, let’s look at what stood out in the market this week.