I like this quote because it points directly at a common mistake many investors make: constantly trying to predict the future, craving the feeling of beating the market, and chasing that “See? I knew it!” moment.

In reality, everything is just a game of probabilities.

Instead of trying to guess what tomorrow will look like, what matters more is preparation. Preparing mentally for volatility, preparing risk management strategies, and preparing for worst-case scenarios so you’re not caught off guard.

To prepare properly, you need to focus on fundamentals and observable phenomena to determine where we likely stand in the market cycle and which scenarios carry the highest probabilities.

This is something I’ve emphasized since the very first IVY articles. Rather than obsessing over every market move or every word from Chair Powell, the most important task is to determine where the market stands: Upslope, Peak, or Bottom?

I believe those who have followed IVY Newsletter from the beginning already had a clear sense of where we were in the cycle well before the recent rallies.

So now, let’s look at what stood out in the market this week.

What everyone had been waiting for finally happened. The Fed cut rates. But the question I want to ask is:

Rates have been cut. Why hasn’t the market really taken off?

The answer is simple: the 0.25% cut had already been priced in. If the cut had been 0.5%, we likely would have seen a much more aggressive move higher.

The reason the market hasn’t surged further is the lingering concern: “After rate cuts, will the economy be okay? Are we heading into a recession?”

This is the primary factor currently “holding the market back,” and what we’re seeing now is a mild correction.

I think this is healthy. It’s another form of market self-cleansing, where some participants have de-risked and taken profits. This reduces the risk of sharp volatility if a negative surprise hits, especially with several important events coming up next week:

Overall, I don’t see any structural change in the market. What’s holding it back is primarily uncertainty around the future economic outlook. Next week should provide more clarity on this front, and it will remain a key short-term driver.

From a longer-term perspective, we’ve only just re-entered the Fed’s rate-cutting trajectory.

After serving time (put lightly), it’s no secret that CZ has continued to operate behind the scenes in supporting $BNB specifically and BNB Chain more broadly, most notably through fueling memecoin narratives. The standout example has been the $BROCCOLI memecoin.

Things cooled off until CZ changed his bio from “ex-@binance” back to “@binance.” No one knows the real meaning behind this move. Does it signal that the lifetime ban preventing CZ from serving as Binance CEO could be lifted? Or is it the return of a “CZ Season” that once shook the market?

No one knows. What we do know is that two things happened: the shilling of ASTER and TWT triggered a strong wave of FOMO across the market.

One point I want to highlight here is $ASTER, the token of a perpetual DEX. I’m not commenting on whether $ASTER is a good investment, but rather on the sector itself. This is a segment left underexplored since the 2021 altcoin season, and it may still have significant room to grow.

Given the current crypto market structure, where there are few truly new narratives to play, derivatives trading, particularly perpetuals, remains an environment that generates opportunities regardless of market direction. This area has been, is, and will likely continue to be a major trend

If perpetual trading is a major emerging trend, then prediction markets will be even harder to ignore. Both share a common trait: they create environments where opportunities exist regardless of broader market conditions. There are, however, some key differences.

Perpetual trading requires technical trading skills, an understanding of market psychology, crowd behavior, and execution. This naturally makes it less accessible to the general public.

Prediction markets, on the other hand, are simple. You’re betting on whether something will happen or not. Yes or no. Participants can predict almost anything. This makes them far more accessible to a mass audience.

To make an analogy, prediction markets feel similar to the PumpFun moment in memecoins. Tokens with no product, no fundamentals, no real substance, just memes. Because they’re easy to understand, they’ve been incredibly effective at attracting a broad audience, even pulling new users into crypto.

You can read more about the prediction market landscape in this article by Coin98 Insights: LINK.

I’ll be sharing more detailed observations and breaking down potential opportunities in prediction markets in upcoming pieces, just as we did with Solana last month.

After more than two years of existence and repeated claims that Base had no plans to launch a token, the ace card has finally been revealed: the $BASE token.

I’ll let you in on a small insight. The Base ecosystem is one of the few I previously highlighted when breaking down opportunities in the Solana ecosystem. With $BASE likely launching within the next 6–10 months, this only strengthens the case for paying closer attention to Base in the coming period.

You can read the full breakdown in this thread:

As markets corrected, overall TVL across ecosystems declined as well, driven primarily by falling asset prices within DeFi protocols.

That said, BNB Chain and Avalanche stood out with notable growth this week:

BNB Chain, fueled by CZ’s influence and the ASTER-driven FOMO.

Avalanche, driven by its $1B DAT narrative and the market’s curiosity around “what they’re planning next.”

Overall capital activity across ecosystems has remained largely unchanged over the past several weeks and months. With BNB Chain capturing the spotlight last week, there’s hope that the gold-colored bar representing BNB Chain volume will become more organic over time.

This week, I came across the following thread and decided to include it in the Good Read section. I saw myself and some of my friends reflected in it: frustration about how difficult this market feels, a sense of caution, and a touch of conservatism in investment decisions.

The core message is about maintaining an open mindset and continuously adapting in an environment that is constantly changing and evolving.

I recommend reading the full thread for deeper context.

Have a great weekend.

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