Recently, while digging deeper into market structure and the true nature of each phase in a cycle, I came across another highly respected figure in investing: Howard Marks.

And that quote is absolutely true.

Markets do not operate purely on what is objectively correct, but on what is believed to be correct. When most people look in the same direction and buy into the same story, prices usually already reflect nearly all expectations.

Conversely, when belief weakens and narratives become vague, unclear, or simply unattractive, the crowd loses interest. That’s when perception begins to diverge from reality when gems get buried in the mud.

#MARKET | TL;DR

CRYPTO: $BTC specifically, and the crypto market as a whole, still lacks the strength to regain momentum amid a broader financial backdrop filled with uncertainty and anxiety.
STOCK: U.S. equity markets are entering a consolidation phase, with AI as the dominant keyword. More precisely, the AI trade is fragmenting. Not every AI-related Stock benefits equally. Micron is emerging as a new contender, while Oracle faces headwinds due to debt burdens and concerns around excessive, premature AI spending.
MACRO: Inflation and labor market data continue to support the case for another rate cut. However, after being “bruised” multiple times this year, markets remain extremely cautious toward any new information.

This slowdown isn’t unique to crypto. U.S. equity markets are also pausing after a relatively long and strong rally, while macro and external conditions remain murky.

In fact, you could view this caution positively. It’s a form of market detox, reducing the risk of violent collapses like the Dotcom bubble or the 2008 housing bubble.

At times like this, instead of feeling bored, I prefer to zoom out, observe patiently, and invest time in upgrading my knowledge - increasing the odds of winning over the long run.

#SPOTLIGHT

What Does a Token Mean When It “Means Nothing”?

As Bitcoin becomes increasingly mainstream, with deeper involvement from financial institutions and governments, demand for privacy has returned strongly over the past few months. Why?

Because in a world where anyone can inspect all on-chain activity tied to a wallet address, privacy once again becomes a way to hide wealth and avoid unwanted scrutiny. But recently, another inevitable demand has surfaced - one born from repeated disappointment.

Time and again, events have shown that for many projects, token holder have almost no real power beyond governance voting. They lack rights, protections, or guaranteed value:

PumpFun acquired Padre, yet the $PADRE token was not integrated into the new ecosystem and came with no value or benefit commitments.
Coinbase acquired Vector / Tensor. The product continues to be developed, but the $TNSR token is not tied to ownership or cash flow from the deal.
Circle acquired Axelar, with no mechanism to protect or convert value for $AXL holder.

→ Unsurprisingly, none of these tokens held their price after the news.

Across much of today’s crypto market, token no longer equate to ownership.

Token holder bear price volatility risk, but have no claim over the product, brand, cash flow, or strategic decisions. When a project is acquired or founders pivot, value flows into equity and legal entities — while tokens are left behind.

Looking ahead, it may be time for the market to become more demanding - to insist on ownership, rights, and real protections for the token they invest in.

This shift could be healthy. It raises the possibility that we’ll finally see fully crypto-native businesses emerge.

As a result, token valuation standards will likely become far more stringent. Pricing tokens loosely, as in the past, may no longer be tolerated.

#ALPHA

CUT THROUGH THE NOISE

(1) xStock Takes Another Step Forward

In my recent piece on Hyperliquid, I mentioned that xStock could become a powerful weapon for Solana in competing with Hyperliquid in Equity Perp.

The idea is simple: xStock allows market maker to hedge more efficiently, reducing risk when providing liquidity for perpetual trading on equity-based assets.

Now xStock has taken another step with xPort.
Institutions can deposit real-world stock and mint corresponding Stock directly on Solana, bringing institutional capital further on-chain.

(2) Lending Orderbook

This is lending, but with limit orders waiting to be matched essentially a Lending Orderbook. Personally, I don’t find the concept revolutionary. I explored similar ideas back in 2021–2022, but infrastructure at the time wasn’t mature enough to support it.

That said, in a market increasingly focused on practical utility, revisiting and optimizing essential financial functions may unlock opportunities. For now, Lending Orderbook remains an old idea resurfacing. I’ll keep it on the watchlist and revisit if something truly novel emerges.

(3) Perp DEX on Solana Is Heating Up

“Perpetual DEX are not a temporary trend” is what I’ve emphasized repeatedly.

Hyperliquid still leads, but faces growing pressure as competition intensifies. I’ve already written about upcoming directions and opportunities around Hyperliquid here.

Solana excels in many areas, but Perpetual Trading has lagged. 2026, however, could be Solana’s breakout year in this segment:

Drift continues rolling out V3 updates: Jito BAM integration, Orderbook, PropAMM, Ownership features.
Bulk has gained attention by running its own validator infrastructure to optimize order execution, positioning itself as a serious Perp DEX contender on Solana.
Phoenix (by Ellipsis Labs) previously focused on Spot orderbook. After pausing that effort and succeeding with SolFi (PropAMM), the team announced at Breakpoint 2025 that they will enter the Perp DEX race.

(4) Borrowing Against Prediction Market Positions

A new name has emerged alongside the rise of Prediction Market: Gondor.

Many prediction markets lock capital for long durations. Gondor addresses this by allowing users to collateralize prediction positions and borrow USDC — up to 50% of collateral value.

Prediction Market still suffer from poor liquidity, which affects collateral health and liquidation risk. That said, Gondor offers a creative solution for a growing market and is worth keeping on the watchlist.