Last week, while scrolling through X, I came across a video of Charlie Munger with a quote that couldn’t be more relevant to the current moment:

❝

“My Berkshire stock has dropped 50% three times, and it never bothered me much. That’s just part of the game.”

Charlie Munger

This quote captures a simple truth: no one knows exactly what will happen in the market tomorrow.
The only thing we can be confident in is that assets with real intrinsic value tend to compound over time.

Right now, it’s worth stepping back and asking yourself:
What exactly are you investing in, and what mindset are you bringing into that position?

If it’s speculation, you should be hyper-aware of momentum and short-term volatility.
If it’s investment, you should focus far more on current intrinsic value and long-term potential, rather than short-term price, which is the noisiest signal of all.

#MARKET | TL;DR

BITCOIN: BTC extended its downtrend, falling nearly 15% to around $80K, the lowest level since April this year.
ALTCOIN: A true “geological fracture.” Since the October 11 crash, liquidity has thinned dramatically and sentiment flipped 180 degrees into fear. Altcoin are extremely sensitive and have erased almost all gains made since the start of the year. Stablecoin market cap has declined for four consecutive weeks.
STOCK: The S&P 500, representing the top 500 U.S. companies across all sectors, posted its fourth consecutive weekly decline from ATH, despite Nvidia delivering strong earnings.
MACRO: Macro conditions are fully in control of capital flows. The Fed remains uncertain about another rate cut in December, while October CPI data has not been released. Policy decisions are being made “in the fog.” In the absence of good news, markets look for something to fear, and the AI bubble has become that focal point.

#OPINION

“A Bubble Does Not Mean You Should Sell”

The stock market is clearly in a corrective phase, and crypto cannot escape that reality. In fact, crypto corrected even harder after the October 11 crash shattered liquidity depth and overall sentiment.

One of the most striking things this week was that Nvidia’s strong earnings were not enough to lift the broader financial market, because the Fed currently appears to be driving blindfolded.

If you zoom out and look at the post-pandemic recovery, we’ve already had a long and powerful rally. Today, you don’t see many guarantees of good outcomes ahead. Instead, you see the driver losing visibility.

In that context, it’s completely reasonable for some participants to “jump off the bus” to reduce risk.

Personally, I’m not afraid of market corrections.

What worries me is crowd fear of a classic bubble collapse.

History has burned three bubbles into collective memory: 1929, 2000, and 2008. Everyone knows how those ended, and everyone uses those lessons to preemptively react to the future.

This makes today’s market extremely sensitive, as participants try to react before a fourth historic bubble bursts, even though there is still no clear catalyst.

I recently read a long piece by Ray Dalio and watched his interview with CNBC, which inspired the title of this issue: “We are definitely in a bubble, but that doesn’t mean you should sell.”

It’s an excellent piece and worth reading if you want better mental material for thinking about tops and bottoms. Just don’t expect 100% precision.

Here’s how I visualize it:

We are inside a bubble, but the bubble skin is thick.
Not everything thrown at it will pop it.

The bubble bursts only when:

It is overinflated to the extreme, or
It is pierced by a sharp enough object

So what counts as “not fully inflated,” and what counts as a “sharp object”?

According to Ray Dalio:

Not fully inflated

Monetary policy is not tightening
Interest rates are not rising

Sharp objects

Sudden demand for cash
Asset taxes
Ownership and leverage imbalances

That’s why the title matters so much.
Yes, there is a bubble. But it does not mean “sell.”

#SPOTLIGHT

Is Hyperliquid Entering a Distribution Phase?

A few months ago, if you searched Hyperliquid or $HYPE mostly surfaced bullish content. Recently, however, more bearish views have begun to appear.

The bearish narrative revolves around several points:

Large unlocks starting Nov 29, 2025, accounting for roughly 23.8% of FDV, with no clear mitigation plan to absorb potential selling pressure

Open Interest on Hyperliquid has not recovered since the October 11 crash, impacting revenue

HIP-3 reduced fees by over 90% for Equity Perp to capture market share, raising concerns about revenue sustainability

Previously, high revenue + token buybacks were the main drivers pushing $HYPE higher. At this point, Hyperliquid appears to lack a new “ace card” to offset growing risks.

In fragile market conditions like these, profit-protection behavior naturally intensifies.

HyperEVM, in my view, remains very early-stage. Hyperliquid needs to expand horizontally, building more “tentacles” to grow the ecosystem and compensate for elevated expectations already priced into $HYPE.

Without new catalysts, $HYPE could reasonably drift into a distribution phase after a prolonged rally.

#ALPHA

CUT THROUGH THE NOISE

(1) Base CEO launches a token. Final move?

Base remains one of the most successful Ethereum Layer 2s alongside Solana. Its focus on content creator coin is still early and unproven, resembling memecoin dynamics more than product-market fit.

Jesse, Base’s CEO, launching $JESSE is less about speculation and more about a statement of commitment to finding a viable model. Combined with Base token rumors, Coinbase acquisitions, x402 momentum, and direct leadership involvement, it’s hard to ignore Base at this stage

(2) DEX shifting

HumidiFi, a PropAMM-based DEX on Solana, has surpassed Binance in SOL/USD spot volume after just five months. Alongside Hyperliquid’s success without CEX listings, this reflects rapidly deepening on-chain liquidity.

CEX listings may no longer be the top priority they once were.

(3) Solana inflation reduction proposal

SIMB-0411 proposes cutting SOL inflation faster, reaching 1.5% in three years instead of six. Key impacts:

2029 SOL supply reduced from ~721M to ~699M
Monetary policy becomes more predictable, similar to post-Merge Ethereum
No negative impact on current stakers

Broad ecosystem support makes this a meaningful step forward.

(4) Equity Perp again

Equity Perp remains underdeveloped because stock volatility is lower than crypto, while crypto traders prefer volatility. The real advantage crypto offers is 24/7 trading.

Solana leads in spot trading; Hyperliquid remains stronger in perpetual infrastructure. Whoever can ignite real demand for Equity Perp in DeFi may capture the spotlight next.